Bayrou prepares for the "irrevocable fall" of his government: "France hasn't had a balanced budget for 51 years."

French Prime Minister François Bayrou presented his budget plan to the National Assembly this Monday to cut public spending, which he hopes will address the massive debt burdening French coffers. A session that will conclude with a vote of confidence called by him, the outcome of which seems more than predictable, even by the prime minister himself. He described the fall of his government as "irrevocable." "It was predicted from the first minute of its existence," he told the lower house deputies in his speech.

It's more than likely that the centrist will resign if the vote of confidence fails, which would mean the entry of a caretaker government and place the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, in a difficult position to find a solution to this political crisis in the neighboring country.

Bayrou maintained a dramatic tone during his address to the House, asserting that what French public finances are currently suffering is an "unbearable hemorrhage." In this regard, the centrist compared "submission to debt" with "submission to military force."

"Dominated by weapons, or dominated by our creditors because of a debt that weighs us down, in both cases we lose our freedom," Bayrou lamented. In this regard, he reiterated that this is not something new, but rather a structural problem that has burdened France for decades: "France has not had a balanced budget for 51 years."

The budget plan Bayrou presented in mid-June includes a public spending cut of almost €44 billion by 2026, which would mean flattening the public deficit curve from 5.8% of GDP in 2024 to 4.6% in that fiscal year. To achieve this goal, the conservative government announced several measures that have a significant impact on society, such as freezing pensions, reducing healthcare spending and public employment, and even eliminating public holidays, among other measures. It also planned a "solidarity contribution" from the highest income tax brackets, which would remain indefinite.

All this in a context in which President Emmanuel Macron announced an increase in military spending for 2027 that would reach €64 billion . In other words, France would cut social spending to increase the military budget.

France is once again facing a new political crisis just nine months after François Bayrou took office. Had the vote of no confidence failed, the moderate leader would have lasted nearly eight months in office. However, he already lasted longer than his predecessor, Michel Barnier, who only managed to hold the French government for three months.

Bayrou's departure thus makes him the fourth prime minister to lose his post during Emmanuel Macron's second presidential term, which began in 2022, and the third to fall in just over a year.